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0.6% loss.
Strategy: oversold rebound.
Mistakes:
1. going against the trend
2. trying to guess the bottom only using previous support level.
Strong trend this year.
Driving forces:
Geopolitic uncertainty(War in Gaza, Ukraine.
Concerns of inflation and dollar strength(rate cut)
US job market turbulence
Support level broke as Trump was elected as the new president. The downtrend continued after the retest of the resistance level.
--> The uptrend was over
Ideas
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2024/03/you-asked-we-answered-whats-behind-golds-march-rally
Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM)
Issued by World Gold Council
Key factors:
Economic expansion
Risk and Uncertainty
Opportunity cost
Momentum
Supply: gold mining
Demand: central banks and large ETFs
We can see that gold is often inverse to US dollar. The reason is that if dollars are expensive, it costs more for the investors to buy gold. Furthermore, gold can also hedge against inflation due to its limited supply.
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